McCain's Path to Victory?

by Eyck Freymann


I just got another mass email from the McCain campaign from scandal-plagued campaign manager Rick Davis. Here are a few of his points. I will debunk them:

1. I believe we are in a very competitive campaign...Iowa - Our numbers in Iowa have seen a tremendous surge in the past 10 days. We took Obama's lead from the double digits to a very close race. That is why you see Barack Obama visiting the state in the final days, trying to stem his losses. It is too little, too late. Like many other Midwestern states, Iowa is moving swiftly into McCain's column. This is just frankly untrue. In the past week there have been four polls in Iowa, showing Obama up 8, 10, 11, and 15 points. This is not within the margin of error and is certainly not close. There is no way it is moving into the McCain column. RealClearPolitics data show that there has not been a single poll showing McCain leading in the state going back to 2007!
2. The Southwest - It is no secret that Republican candidates in the Southwest have to focus on winning over enough Latino and Hispanic voters in Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado to carry them to victory. John McCain has overcome challenges Republicans face, and has made up tremendous ground in these states with these voters. For these voters, the choice has become clear, and you have seen a big change in the numbers. John McCain is now winning enough voters to perform within the margin of error - putting these states within reach. Once again, I have no idea what Davis is talking about. The two polls in the past week from New Mexico show Obama with 10 and 17 point leads. The average of the polls from Nevada shows Obama leading McCain by 7 points, compared by 3.5 in the previous week. The upshot: Obama has doubled his lead in these states in the past week. They have gone from perhaps in the margin of error to significantly beyond it.
   
3. Colorado - Barack Obama tried to outspend our campaign in Colorado during the early weeks of October and finish off our candidate in Colorado. However, after our visit early this week, we saw a tremendous rebound in our poll position, and Colorado is back on the map.  Here is the rebound: the poll average two weeks ago showed Obama leading by 7.5 points. This week it has decreased by three tenths of a percentage point to a 7.2 lead for Obama. 

He goes on to discuss how the McCain ticket is "strong" in Pennsylvania and Ohio...without citing any numbers. 

My point: If you don't pay attention to the numbers, you might be tempted to believe these lies. Resist the temptation. Seek out accurate data to properly understand what is going on.

Admittedly, polls have tightened in Missouri and Florida. Obama is up but the election won't be a cakewalk. We must rededicate ourselves to making the strongest possible push in the last 72 hours.

Obama '08