by H. Goldman
As a current resident of Iowa, I have been quite perplexed by the media's decision to consider the state a sure win for Senator Obama. Much of Iowa's population is liberal on economic and domestic issues, but it is very conservative in regards to social issues. Namely, abortion. This could create a sort of "Bradley effect," where voters decide to vote for Senator McCain even if they had previously decided to vote for Senator Obama.Aside from the aforementioned population, there is also a large, though thinly spread Evangelical electorate that is hard to completely encompass in the polls and, combined with a record turnout in the immensely conservative western portion of the state, could give McCain a proverbial edge. Though, this could only occur if young voters do not turn out or vote in their home states, (the latter, of course, only applies to college students.)
The above is purely hypothetical and one of many scenarios, though I don't expect Obama to win by more than five points in my state.
Obama/Biden '08!
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