The State of the Nation: Republican Presidential Candidates

Republicans
Chuck Todd was saying this two months ago, but I strongly believe that we are looking at a Rudy-Romney contest. Thompson hasn't caught fire, and will soon fizzle. McCain is on the rise, but will not do well in Iowa due to his lack of support for ethanol subsides (read: Iowa farmer payouts). There is a residual anti-McCain sentiment in South Carolina from the 2000 campaign that is driving down his performance there. His shot is to try to bring down Huckabee in Iowa to get a decent third place finish, and then focus all his resources in New Hampshire. That can slingshot him to Nevada. Then he needs to survive South Carolina and edge Romney in Florida. It is possible, but extremely unlikely.

Predictions:

Iowa:
1. Romney
2. Giuliani
3. McCain and Huckabee, effectively a tie
4. Thompson (distant single digits)
5. Ron Paul (come on.)

New Hampshire:
1. Romney
2. McCain (close)
3. Giuliani
4. Thompson, Huckabee, Ron Paul (6% or so each)

South Carolina:
1. Thompson
2. Romney
3. Giuliani, McCain, Huckabee (tie)