The State of the Nation: Democratic Presidential Candidates

Here are some thoughts on the race:

1. The Democratic field is much more open than its Republican counterpart. Hillary Clinton, who is acting as if she is already the nominee, has fallen off her high perch in the past two weeks. Her vote on labelling Iran's Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organization was a foolish political decision. The US cannot afford to get into a conflict with Iran. The only way for the world to solve the crisis in Iraq is to garner support of Egypt, the EU, and Syria to diplomatically curb the sectarian violence. New borders may have to be drawn in a two or three-state solution. Turkey will also need to be involved. The reason why the US cannot pull out is that there is no consensus on the future of Iraq. Once the leading players have agreed on a game plan, so to speak, the international community can oversee the Iraqi "democracy". Until then, the leading powers must ensure that Iran does not try to interfere in any way with its neighbor. Thus, proking Iran is a questionable political move, and Clinton's vote calls into question her political savvy. Coupled with her poor performance in the last debate, where she tried (and failed) to be all things to all people, it is no surprise that her polling performance has suffered. She has fallen anywhere from 10 to 12 percent nationally, and her lead in New Hampshire has evaporated. With 5 and a half more weeks' campaign time (not counting between Christmas and New Year's) her stumbles have blown open the race which looked sealed just a week or two ago.
2. I have doubts that Obama can win in Iowa or New Hampshire. Racism, unfortunately, continues to permeate American politics, and do not know how strongly the racist vote will hurt him. It is indeed possible that the American electorate is not open enough to vote for a black man, regardless of what I believe to be his superior intelligence and leadership ability. He does, however, do well enough in the polls to be considered a strong contender.
   
3. Edwards has run a very intelligent campaign, earning the support of organized labor and liberal activists who feel left behind in Clinton's run for the center. He has the potential to win Iowa and come in second in New Hampshire. If he can come out of those first two with a lead, he will have enough momentum to snatch South Carolina away from Clinton and Obama. If he wins that too, he is on his way to the nomination.
4. This race is too open to give state by state predictions, but I would peg Clinton's changes at 70%, Edwards' at 15-20%, and Obama's at 10-15%. Edwards would do the best in the general election, followed by Clinton and Obama.
5. The other candidates: Kucinich, Dodd, Biden, and Richardson, do not have enough money, organization, or name recognition to seriously register. The latter three are running for Vice President or for a cabinet spot.