Thursday, September 27, 2007

Clinton Gets a Boost

Hillary Clinton has been steadily rising in the polls since Obama peaked several months ago. Now she is rising at a rate of around 2 points per month, while Obama is falling at around 2 points per month. The frontloaded primary schedule will help her enormously: although she does not do as well in Iowa and New Hampshire, she is leading in South Carolina and all the major "Super Duper Tuesday" states. After February 5th, 2/3 of states will have had primaries, and we will know the nominees. She is leading in New York, Ohio, California, and Michigan, and is lagging just behind Obama in Illinois. The race is hers to lose.

Prominent Democrats have been wasting no time in jumping on board: in the last two weeks she was endorsed by former NATO general Wesley Clark, Indiana senator Evan Bayh, and Former Governor Pete Wilson of California.

In a recent Strategic Vision (R) poll, she has caught up with Edwards in Iowa, and all evidence suggests that she will outraise Obama this quarter for the first time.

Unless Gore jumps in in mid-October, Hillary will most likely be the candidate.

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