General Election Analysis: Pennsylvania

This is the first in a series of analyses of potential general election races by state.

First up is Pennsylvania and its 21 electoral votes. Pennsylvania has a history of some close elections:
2004 - Kerry 51% Bush 48%
2000 - Gore 50% Bush 46% Nader 2%
1996 - Clinton 49% Dole 40% Perot 9%
1992 - Clinton 45% Bush 36% Perot 18%
1988 - Bush 51% Dukakis 48%
(uselectionatlas.org)

Let us examine some recent Quinnipiac University polls of general election matchups from 8/20:
Giuliani 44, Clinton 48
Giuliani 45, Obama 40
Giuliani 45, Edwards 43
McCain 41, Clinton 47
McCain 40, Obama 43
McCain 38, Edwards 46
Romney 35, Clinton 50
Romney 31, Obama 46
Romney 29, Edwards 53
Thompson 36, Clinton 50
Thompson 34, Obama 46
Thompson 32, Edwards 51

First of all, it is difficult not to notice Thompson and Romney's terrible showing here. It reflects a lasting "Independent" mentality in a state where Ross Perot got 18% of the vote in 1992. It is also interesting that this is the one state where McCain is still a clear second place.

On the Democratic side, Barack Obama polls the worst. Although Edwards does significantly better than Clinton against Thompson and Romney, Clinton is the clear across-the-board winner.

Thus I am counting Pennsylvania for Clinton against a generic Republican, and for Obama and Edwards leaving it too-close-to-call.