by The Young Sentinel
Everyone has noticed in the past few days that Obama's support has been falling. He has lost leads in Ohio and Colorado and he and McCain are virtually tied in national polls. Although I credit Obama's dip to his vacation and McCain's ubiquitous highly personal attack ads, I envision a mounting tsunami that will carry the Democrats to victory in November.
August is traditionally a no-news month. The inevitable result of a news shortage is speculation over tomorrow's news, hence the media obsession with predicting the campaign's vice-presidential picks. This is the first election in more than 55 years in which there is no sitting President or Vice-President in the running, and as such both candidates have very long lists of potential choices. Whomever Obama and McCain pick will surely be major figures in national politics in the years ahead. The candidates' veeps will also define them, telling the country where they want to compete, who they want to succeed them, and the expertise they want to bring to the ticket.
Obama's choice is drawing the most interest, as this crucial juncture will determine whether he wants to focus on international or domestic issues, which states he wants to write off, and which constituencies he intends to court. The Illinois Senator has run a highly secretive campaign, and so the media is relying on a little circumstantial evidence and a whole lot of guesswork when it prognosticates. Still, the conventional wisdom is that Obama has three major choices:
All of these potential VPs have uncomfortably large weaknesses. Although I like them all, they are undoubtedly lightweights.
A month ago I had nothing but disdain for people who suggested an Obama-Hillary ticket, but now I see that there is no other alternative. Obama is losing ground because he underperforms among women and the elderly, two demographics that form Hillary's base. The fight for the nomination is over, but a rift through the party remains, keeping the dream of party unity out of reach. Although there are those who will refuse to vote for her, I believe that Obama will gain far more than he will lose by putting her on the ticket.
I have talked with dozens of people about this: people who originally supported Hillary and people who despise her. When I called the Obama campaign to put in my two cents, the woman who answered the call said that my message was "coming through loud and clear".
It is indeed possible for Obama to win without Clinton, but I cannot bring myself to believe that a candidate who has run such a clever and forward-thinking campaign would pick Biden, who is a disaster waiting to happen.
At this point there is nothing we can do but wait and see.
Obama-Clinton 2008!
-The Young Sentinel
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Wednesday, August 20, 2008
The Coming Obama Tsunami
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11 comments:
I'm not predicting a "Democratic Tsunami", due to the fact that the debates will start in Fall, and judging by the two candidates experience, McCain will obliterate Obama.
John McCain 2008
We'll see. If Obama can keep up the passion and intensity that he does do very well in his speeches during the presidential debates, I think he'll come off much better than McCain. We'll see.
Well you see thats the thing about Obama: unless he has a pre-written speech/script, he is going to look like a fool.
You're correct that Obama's strength in oration is somewhat lessened during debate (when he has not prepared a speech), but saying that he will "look like a fool" is far beyond the actual situation. McCain, however, at least recently, has had an embarrassing series of remarks that have come back to haunt him, e.g., "Maybe that's a way of killing them" or, when asked what he thinks of as rich, responding "$5 million".
Disdain for the Clinton supporters a month ago? All I have for that arrogant attitude is contemptuousness.
Well, all this speculation and hopefulness is apparently for naught: It's officially Biden.
Biden doesn't have a strong track record on women's issues. Obama needs that demographic to win, and nothing short of a miracle will give him that now.
I'm deeply disappointed that Obama didn't have the wisdom to unite the party and see past personal problems to pick the VP who would be best for the country.
From the National Journal Most Liberal Senators:
1.Obama, Barack, D-Ill.
2.Whitehouse, Sheldon, D-R.I.
3.Biden, Joseph, D-Del.
So, in my opinion, any independent/republican that thinks about voting for this pair of Obama/Biden should realize that their not getting "change" or "hope"; just the same old hard-core liberal policies.
John McCain 2008 (He's way closer to independent that Barack will ever be)
(sorry typed in a rush: He's way closer to independent than Barack will ever be)
"Change" and "hope" refer to a split from the primarily conservative administrations of the United States in the past few decades (with the exception of Clinton), bringing different (though not necessarily "new" liberal ideas in some cases) to the government. And, if you're being stringent about correcting typos, the correct spelling in this case would be "…should realize that they're not getting", as opposed to "their".
My mistake :P.
They are liberal policies: socialized medicine, repeal of tax cuts, no drilling offshore. Most of his policies are identical to Jimmy Carter's, and he didn't even get re-elected. This ushered an age of freedom and real hope with Ronald Reagon.
Going back to the same liberal polices isn't going to solve anything but sink us deeper in a quagmire of troubles. His gas tax holiday was tried by Carter, and when Carter did it, foreign reliance on oil increased 5% and domestic production decreased 5%.
John McCain 2008
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