That's A Way of Killing Them

Here's an amazing story from the AP (as reported by Political Wire):

PITTSBURGH (AP) -- Cindy McCain's jab to her husband's back came a second too late Tuesday to keep him from making a wisecrack about the health impact of Iran's main import from the United States: cigarettes.

Republican presidential candidate John McCain was asked about an Associated Press report that $158 million in cigarettes have been shipped to Iran during George W. Bush's presidency despite restrictions on U.S. exports to that country.

"Maybe that's a way of killing them," McCain told reporters, smiling as he waited for a cheesesteak sandwich at the Primanti Brothers restaurant. His wife, sitting next to him at the counter, poked his back without looking up.

"I meant that as a joke," McCain quickly explained.

To me, this just seems to sum up the ongoing saber rattling that has been going on in Washington. It seems that each day Iran is in the news again, refusing nuclear deals, ignoring economic sanctions, and boldly threatening the West. [CONTINUED: Click "Read More"]

Iran is able to get away with defying the entire Western world because its leaders know what they are doing. With US forces tied up in the Iraq and Afghanistan debacles, our military is strained even fighting the insurgency. (This is, of course, a testament not to the qualities of our troops but to the lack of accountability, wasteful spending, and no-bid contracts offered by Washington to Halliburton and others.)

The United States is at present completely incapable of fighting major wars in three countries at once. Iran has no true economic need to accept our deals (all of which involve the nation giving up its nuclear program), as its oil is selling elsewhere. They know that the US and Israel will go to any lengths to prevent it from gaining nuclear weapons. However, Iran's leadership is intelligent enough to recognize that any military preemptive attack by either would justify all out war.

Iraq is poor because its oil mines are largely untapped. Iran has more money than it knows what to do with: they don't care if we sanction them, cutting off trade. They are doing what any reasonable person in their position would do: lean back, shake their heads, and wait for the West to feverishly up the offers.

This indeed is the great irony of our Iran relations. We have enough nuclear power to wipe out the planet many times over, but it doesn't make a bit of difference. Right now, they are the ones in control, not us. They call the shots, we are reactionary. Meanwhile, their nuclear program slowly develops.

So, two questions are raised: what do we do now? and why are the Republicans being confrontational with Iran when they know it will come to nothing?

The second provides an easier, albeit a more cynical answer. Fear and economy keeps the ruling party in power; history shows this again and again. They won in 2004 by scaring the populace with manipulated terror alerts and gas prices. They will do this again in 2008. By presenting Iran as a constant threat, they can both intimidate the American people and force up gas prices artificially high. Just as prices fell sharply just before the 2004 election (one of the two times in history when Saudi Arabia has pumped at full capacity), they will fall similarly in 2008.

But this time, we have a Republican candidate who seems almost itching to invade. Between mis-associating Iran and al-Qaeda and singing "bomb bomb bomb Iran!", McCain has demonstrated that he is not to be trusted on this strategic issue. This quote corroborates my original feeling.

As for what our Iran policy should be, I suggest a multi-level strategy.

First of all, our sanctions aren't doing squat. We need to get the rest of the world, especially the European Union, Russia, and China on our side.

Second, we need to cease this ridiculous treatment of Iran by our media and politicians. They are a threat, but no more of a threat than North Korea was for five years (remember how Bush refused to negotiate with them, even ignored them? That wasn't in an election year). We need to look at this reasonably, and stop portraying this as a life-or-death struggle for a defenseless Israel. Israel has several hundred nuclear weapons and some of the world's most advanced military technology. They can take care of themselves.

Third, we need to sit down with Iran's leadership and negotiate. Even if it's only symbolic, we need to promote a spirit of goodwill. Not talking to our enemies will only exacerbate the problem.

Senator McCain: You are not funny. In case you hadn't noticed, this is the real world.

Obama '08.