New Hampshire Predictions

I like Clinton, Obama, and Edwards equally well.

Democrats:

1. Obama will win by 5 points, and will ride the victory to another in South Carolina. He will also use the record turnout in both Iowa and New Hampshire to make his electability case for ultra-white states. A loss of any kind (or a lack of a clear win) will cost him tons of momentum. At this moment, however, with minutes to go until the polls close, evidence suggests that he will cruise to an easy win.
2. Clinton has had a terrible early state strategy. At first she ignored the first few, allowing Edwards and Obama to build up early advantages. Then she started campaigning there urgently. The problem is that, once she acknowledged interest in competing there (rather than waiting until February 5 to pick up the delegates) she risked a huge publicity nightmare if she lost Iowa. It appears now that she will lose. By how much will determine how competitively she can stay in the race. Her supporters, who tend to be more liberal than Obama's might migrate to Edwards, creating a truly competitive three-way race in South Carolina and beyond. Do not count Edwards out...yet. A strong showing tonight coupled with a poor one from Hillary might catapult him to #2. We'll see.
3. As I said, Edwards has the most to lose or gain. A second place finish (unlikely, but certainly possible given Clinton's missteps) could make him a serious candidate. A lackluster finish will handicap him enormously in the next few states, sine qua nons if he wishes to win big on February 5.

Republicans:

1. McCain, who most (including me) left for dead a few months ago, has rebounded to frontrunner status. If he wins by more than 7 or 8 points, it will demote Romney to the second tier. He has pinned all his hopes on Iowa and New Hampshire, and without even strong second places in either, he cannot win. McCain is aiming to convert momentum from an almost sure win into a win in Michigan, which will put him into real competition in South Carolina.
2. Mitt Romney's campaign must be freaking out. Things do not look good.
3. Mike Huckabee and Fred Thompson, two candidates who are not really competitive tonight, should have written off the state and focused their efforts over the past week in South Carolina. A loss in the state would cost either candidate the nomination. A win by Huckabee could make him a frontrunner (depending on what happens in Michigan)
4. Rudy Giuliani should be campaigning nonstop in Florida. If he loses there, he's toast.

In effect, the Democrats have a frontrunner, while the Republicans do not. It is, as I think I have mentioned before, that Huckabee will win Iowa, McCain New Hampshire, Romney Michigan, Thompson South Carolina, and Giuliani Florida. Such a result (or simliar scenario) would hurt the party enormously, as the candidates would take roughly equal shares of the vote on Super-Duper Tuesday and end up with a deadlocked convention. People don't realize that the Republican convention is not being held until September. The Democrats would be able to rally around a candidate, while the Republicans would be engaged in bitter infighting. It's Barack Obama's dream, and New Hampshire will give us an idea of whether or not it is plausible. There's one thing that no one is denying: there is no one at all you would rather be tonight than Barack Obama.

20 minutes to go. I have to stop blogging and go crunch some county numbers.

Happy Primary Day to All!