In 2006 the Democrats swept back both houses of congress, netting 6 Senate seats, 30 House seats, and 6 governorships. Where do the congressional elections for 2008 stand?
The House
House races are much more volatile, due to a number of factors:
The House
House races are much more volatile, due to a number of factors:
- Lack of accurate polling
- Tendency to benefit mostly one party in an election year (i.e. they swing either one way or the other, and onlookers usually can't tell in advance how much)
- Distribution of resources is key especially in rural and poor districts
All the numbers seem to point increased Democratic gains in the House: they intend to raise $150 million, several times that of the Republicans, generic polls favor them by a 10-point margin, and the President's approval rating is in the toilet.
These factors create an atmosphere similar to that of 2006: one in which top-tier Democrats are inclined to run and strong Republicans candidates are scared away. I am holding out as to even a rough estimate. My only certainty is Democratic gains.
The Senate
Republicans will have a very hard time this cycle. Their usual huge cash advantage has flipped to their opponents, and they have 22 seats to defend (to the Democrats' 12). Here are my race overviews (in order of most likely to change). I will update them as appropriate. In the future, there will most likely be a separate page for them.
1. John Warner (R-VA) Retiring - Former Governor Mark Warner, who has a nearly 70% approval rating in the state, is most likely up against George "Macaca" Allen of 2006 fame. Allen's racist remarks to an Indian volunteer of his opponent Jim Webb cause his 20% lead to evaporate, and eventually flipped control of the Senate to the Democrats. Warner is leading by 20% or more in all polls. Race Rating: Solid Democratic
2. Wayne Allard (R-CO) Retiring - Allard is quite unpopular in this populist western state, and Democrat Mark Udall is polling ahead here. Udall has demonstrated a knack for fundraising, and already has $3 million cash on hand. The likely Republican, former congressman Bob Schaffer, has also raised over a million, but Udall has the ad. Race Rating: Likely/Leans Democratic (I'll push it one way or the other after the next fundraising report).
3. John Sununu (R-NH) - Sununu is facing an uphill battle for reelection. He is unpopular in a state that is trending Democratic, and the likely Democrat is extremely popular former governor Jean Shaheen. She beat him by double digits in polls several months ago, but her strategy and more recent polls indicate that the seat is still in play. Race Rating: Leans/Likely Democratic.
4. Pete Domenici (R-NM) Retiring - Domenici is embroiled in the attorney firing scandal, and his retirement has started a rush for his seat. Polls indicate that Governor Bill Richardson (D), who is currently running and losing for president, would coast to victory against any Republican. Richardson has denied interest in the seat, I suspect because he hopes to be a vice-presidential pick. Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez (D) in a statistical tie with likely Republican Heather Wilson. Representative Tom Udall (D), who initially declared that he would not seek the seat, is being tempted by polls showing him far ahead. Some sources say that he will run, but until he makes up his mind this race is staying at number 4. Race Rating: Tossup.
5. Norm Coleman (R-MN) - The Democratic primary is between state attorney general Mike Ciresi and comedian/radio host Al Franken. The two are tied in most polls, and do basically equally well against Coleman (generally losing around 47%-42%). Look for Schumer (chair of the Democratic Senatorial Committee) to try to push one out before the primary to avoid a scarring fight. I'd put my money on Ciresi, but we have to wait and see. Because he has net unfavorables and is below 50%, Coleman's lead will probably evaporate soon enough (as the public becomes familiar with the Democrats), but for now the GOP has an advantage. Race Rating: Leans Republican/Tossup.
I could go on, but most seats below this are not truly competitive at this point. Democrats stand a decent chance of beating Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, Ted Stevens of Alaska, Susan Collins of Maine, and Gordon Smith of Oregon. The Republicans could conceivably beat Tim Johnson of South Dakota and Mary Landrieu of Louisiana, but do not yet have top tier candidates. So none of these races are truly competitive at this point. The top 4 or 5 are the only ones truly likely to switch.
In the Senate Democrats are aiming for the "magic 60", a number that will allow them to override filibusters by the Republicans. Due to the number of seats in play, it is indeed possible, but at this stage not likely.
These factors create an atmosphere similar to that of 2006: one in which top-tier Democrats are inclined to run and strong Republicans candidates are scared away. I am holding out as to even a rough estimate. My only certainty is Democratic gains.
The Senate
Republicans will have a very hard time this cycle. Their usual huge cash advantage has flipped to their opponents, and they have 22 seats to defend (to the Democrats' 12). Here are my race overviews (in order of most likely to change). I will update them as appropriate. In the future, there will most likely be a separate page for them.
1. John Warner (R-VA) Retiring - Former Governor Mark Warner, who has a nearly 70% approval rating in the state, is most likely up against George "Macaca" Allen of 2006 fame. Allen's racist remarks to an Indian volunteer of his opponent Jim Webb cause his 20% lead to evaporate, and eventually flipped control of the Senate to the Democrats. Warner is leading by 20% or more in all polls. Race Rating: Solid Democratic
2. Wayne Allard (R-CO) Retiring - Allard is quite unpopular in this populist western state, and Democrat Mark Udall is polling ahead here. Udall has demonstrated a knack for fundraising, and already has $3 million cash on hand. The likely Republican, former congressman Bob Schaffer, has also raised over a million, but Udall has the ad. Race Rating: Likely/Leans Democratic (I'll push it one way or the other after the next fundraising report).
3. John Sununu (R-NH) - Sununu is facing an uphill battle for reelection. He is unpopular in a state that is trending Democratic, and the likely Democrat is extremely popular former governor Jean Shaheen. She beat him by double digits in polls several months ago, but her strategy and more recent polls indicate that the seat is still in play. Race Rating: Leans/Likely Democratic.
4. Pete Domenici (R-NM) Retiring - Domenici is embroiled in the attorney firing scandal, and his retirement has started a rush for his seat. Polls indicate that Governor Bill Richardson (D), who is currently running and losing for president, would coast to victory against any Republican. Richardson has denied interest in the seat, I suspect because he hopes to be a vice-presidential pick. Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez (D) in a statistical tie with likely Republican Heather Wilson. Representative Tom Udall (D), who initially declared that he would not seek the seat, is being tempted by polls showing him far ahead. Some sources say that he will run, but until he makes up his mind this race is staying at number 4. Race Rating: Tossup.
5. Norm Coleman (R-MN) - The Democratic primary is between state attorney general Mike Ciresi and comedian/radio host Al Franken. The two are tied in most polls, and do basically equally well against Coleman (generally losing around 47%-42%). Look for Schumer (chair of the Democratic Senatorial Committee) to try to push one out before the primary to avoid a scarring fight. I'd put my money on Ciresi, but we have to wait and see. Because he has net unfavorables and is below 50%, Coleman's lead will probably evaporate soon enough (as the public becomes familiar with the Democrats), but for now the GOP has an advantage. Race Rating: Leans Republican/Tossup.
I could go on, but most seats below this are not truly competitive at this point. Democrats stand a decent chance of beating Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, Ted Stevens of Alaska, Susan Collins of Maine, and Gordon Smith of Oregon. The Republicans could conceivably beat Tim Johnson of South Dakota and Mary Landrieu of Louisiana, but do not yet have top tier candidates. So none of these races are truly competitive at this point. The top 4 or 5 are the only ones truly likely to switch.
In the Senate Democrats are aiming for the "magic 60", a number that will allow them to override filibusters by the Republicans. Due to the number of seats in play, it is indeed possible, but at this stage not likely.
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