China and the tug-of-war in Afghanistan

by Kakofonous

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According to a recent article in The New York Times, geologists employed by the US government have discovered enormous mineral deposits in Afghanistan, in such amounts that they will be "enough to fundamentally alter the Afghan economy and perhaps the Afghan war itself." With this discovery, it seems, Afghanistan can look forward to foreign investment aimed at developing the newfound resources. One of the more prominent sources of this investment will be China, which, according to the article, has been developing a copper mine in Logar Province and is looking for further opportunities in Afghanistan.

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This is in keeping with China's general strategy for the region: stay out of military confrontation, but focus intensely on economic cooperation and development. Two reasons are immediately apparent for China to focus on developing Afghan resources: mining potentially represents excellent opportunities for Afghan economic development, which looks attractive from a security standpoint; and/or China wishes to consolidate its already impressive (indeed, fairly frightening) hold on resources in the area—according to a Times article from August of last year, it produces 93 percent of the world's rare earth metals, which are essential for a wide variety of products including consumer electronics. A hold this tight makes growth in China's already monstrous manufacturing industry dirt-cheap and essentially inevitable. It also gives the country a powerful bargaining chip in economic or diplomatic negotiations.

One of the many reasons that the war in Afghanistan has been intractable is that the nation has figured unpleasantly in regional security strategy. For example, Pakistan has cultivated relationships with the Taliban (at least until recently; it is not entirely clear what events like the capture of Abdul Ghani Baradar signify about current policy) in order to provide it with a so-called "hedge" against India—that is, supposedly reducing its chance of being held in a pincer grip between India and an Afghanistan close to India.

What does this have to do with Chinese mining ventures in Afghanistan? Perhaps not much. However, any move by China in Afghanistan is bound to get at least India and Pakistan interested. China has to maintain a delicate balance in relations between the two nations, since a move in favor of one is invariably perceived as being against the other. Recently, Sino-Indian relations have not been so friendly. China claims that Arunachal Pradesh, an area in northern India, is actually Southern Tibet; Kashmir, long a pressure point in regional geopolitics, was the site of a confrontation between Indian workers and Chinese forces in October 2009. China has also invested significantly in Pakistan; one of its larger projects is the Gwadar port on the Arabian Sea. (This article on Gwadar from the Atlantic makes for interesting reading.)

Thus, the New York Times story doesn't warrant unconditional optimism. While any possibility of Afghan economic growth should certainly be welcomed, that isn't all the discovery will bring. Heightened Chinese influence in Afghanistan could lead to increased tension between India and China, and perhaps between India and Pakistan as well. It is hard to say which way power and relationships will shift, when a third player enters the regional tug-of-war for Afghanistan. One BBC article has quoted Robert Kaplan (who wrote the Atlantic piece linked above) as saying "Afghanistan has been a prize that Pakistan and India have fought over directly and indirectly for decades"; if China joins in the fight, there is no telling how geopolitics and economics in southern Asia will be changed.

Plus: A look at the relations between Afghanistan and China from Foreign Affairs: "Kabul's New Patron?"