A Four-Party System?

by N. Biette-Timmons

Ezra Klein's post this morning (Could a majoritarian Congress be more bipartisan?) echoed my recent questions about today's starkly partisan Congressional environment. The struggle for the Democratic leadership to reach 216 votes in the House, as well as the vituperative protests of the Tea Party movement, has gotten me thinking that perhaps the two-party system as we know it will be changing in the near future.

Yes, I realize that it is incredibly unlikely that the United States' inherent party system will be receptive, or conducive, to these fundamental changes. But it appears that Americans may have a four-ideology system emerging. On the simple, two-dimensional political spectrum, we have the Progressive Democrats on the left, the Blue Dog Dems toward the middle (with Bart Stupak and his friends proudly bearing the title), the Moderate Republicans just to the right of center, and then the Tea Party Conservatives at the far right.

Many noteworthy pundits are saying that it is nearly impossible for the Republican party to survive the way we know it. Currently, moderate Republicans face a threat in November (actually before November--whenever their states hold primaries) from right-wing conservatives à la the Tea Party. These challengers from the right claim that "liberal Republicans" (to be honest; this phrase makes me giggle) do not truly represent the conservative morals of the party.

In Florida, sitting governor and moderate Republican Charlie Crist is campaigning hard against former Florida State House Speaker Marco Rubio, a scion of today's Tea Party; John McCain (R-Arizona) is trying hard to distance himself from his "maverick-y ways," notably co-sponsoring the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act with Wisconsin Democrat Russ Feingold. Threatened by conservative challenger J.D. Hayworth, he's brought in the big guns, campaigning with Tea Party poster girl Sarah Palin. McCain's desperate appeal to far-right Republicans despite his past popularity for favoring bipartisan action is indicative of the worst fear of many moderate Republican stalwarts: being knocked out in the 2010 mid-term elections in favor of more right-wing candidates.

Admittedly, the Tea Party movement is en vogue with Republicans right now, so the right-wing challengers may only be part of a passing fad. However, if this mood keeps up, the Republican presidential candidate in 2012 may very well be a member of the Tea Party. If this comes to pass, it will be a mixed blessing to President Obama and the rest of the Democrats. They will find it easier to attract voters in the center, but compromise as we know it will become impossible.