The Mistake of Ayatollah Khamenei

by iBerk

Yesterday, Ayatollah Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran, expressed what amounted to a full endorsement of incumbent president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. He could have, in effect, caused his own downfall and possibly a revolution in his country.

The results of Iran's June 12 election are indeed questionable. Many experts Iranian experts have pointed to various statistical anomalies in the polling, for instance that the primary opposition leader, Mir-Hossein Mousavi did not win in the two Azeri provinces in which he was expected to do well. However, regardless of whether the election was "fair", there is still a high level of discontent among the Iranian population, particularly in Tehran. It may never be proven whether the election that occurred on the 12th was, in fact, fraudulent, however the fact remains that a seemingly large portion of the Iranian population believes it to be so. Therefore, the Ayatollah made a huge mistake by ignoring this segment of the population and banning all further demonstrations.

Khamenei, as the Supreme Leader of Iran enjoys enormous power. He has no chance of being impeached, or removed from office, and his position is not elected. Therefore, he is virtually politically immortal. However, any leader, regardless of their vulnerability, only has as much power as afforded to them by their people. As a religious as well as political leader, the Ayatollah most likely enjoyed unlimited power, his word was law. However, by systematically banning all opposition to the elections, and therefore to Ahmadinejad's rule, he effectively lost the obedience of a large portion of the population. Individuals who once would not think of disobeying the Ayatollah's command could now be quite open to questioning him. This is because of the 'black and white' terms of his decision to support Ahmadinejad.

By stating that any demonstrations, even peaceful ones, would be violently suppressed, and hereby effectively banning any and all opposition to the Ahmadinejad's rule, the Ayatollah has, I believe, alienated this faction who still believes in the victory of Mousavi. As the continued demonstrations have shown, many of these individuals have shown themselves to be willing to act against the will of the Khamenei. As violence continues, and discontentment continues to rise, it is likely that more individuals will make this choice.

Therefore, the Ayatollah has fundamentally undermined his power base. By creating the substrate for the questioning of his own power, he has perhaps begun the process of his own downfall. It is impossible to predict what will occur in Iran in the coming days weeks or months, however it seems clear that, at the present rate something drastic is likely to occur. Perhaps an event such as the arrest of Mousavi will be the catalyst for an event as extreme as a revolution. Or, perhaps the demonstrations will eventually die down in magnitude, and the Ahmedinejad regime will continue its reign unimpeded for the next 5 years. Whatever happens, however, it is clear that the fundamental balance of power in the Middle East, or even for the entire world, is at stake and could change at any time.