Young Sentinel's Election Preview - Part 1: Senate

by Eyck Freymann


I'm going to divide my election predictions into two parts to make them easier to read.

The Democrats will net somewhere between 30 and 35 house seats (more likely on the low end of that). I could go into the individual races, but frankly no one knows: they tend to move in a tide.

Democrats facing tough challenges in North Carolina and Washington will keep their party's hold on the seats. The only Governorship that will change hands will be Missori, in which Democrat Jay Nixon will defeat Republican Kenny Hulshof.

The interesting part will be in the Senate:

1. Alaska - Ted Stevens has a one-way ticket out of Washington on the corruption train. Expect Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D) to defeat him by 5 to 6 points. 
2. New Mexico - The only noteworthy thing about this race is that all three of the state's representatives in congress (2 R, 1 D) vacated their seats to run for Senate. Democratic Congressman Tom Udall will win and the party will claim all three of the state's seats.
3. Virginia - This race was never competitive. Uberpopular former Governor Mark Warner will win in a landslide. Expect to see him running for President eight years from now, along with Montana governor Brian Schweitzer.
4. Colorado - This state has been trending Democratic. Expect a double digit win from Democrat Mark Udall. Obama can ride his coattails (not that he needs to in Colorado).
5. New Hampshire - Popular former governor Jeanne Shaheen will destroy Republican incumbent John Sununu. This will not be close. Obama is winning the state by over 10 points, and I can't imagine many Obama-Sununu voters (will I can see McCain-Shaheen voters). 
6. North Carolina - We knew this was over for Republican Liddy Dole when she started airing ads calling her opponent, Kay Hagan, a godless atheist liberal. No one does something so desperate without really bad internal polling. Hagan will win by 5.
   
7. Oregon - I remember talking in May with an aide to the other senator from the state, Ron Wyden. The aide said that he could not forsee a scenario in which Democratic challenger Jeff Merkley could win. I had another extensive talk with a well-connected Oregon politico at the convention and she too labeled the Democrat as the underdog. Not anymore. Merkley has raised money and very effectively tied Smith to Bush. Expect the Dems to take it by a mid single digit margin. 
8. Minnesota - There are only two senate races that are true tossups, and this is one of them. Democratic Al Franken, a former writer, radio talk show host, and SNL character, is facing off against unpopular senator Norm Coleman, the man who, in a fluke, won Paul Wellstone's seat after the Democrat's plane went down six years ago. Franken has the edge, but the wildcard is the Libertarian, Barkley, some of whose supporters may change their minds and vote for Franken. The race is extremely close; Franken has barely a 1-2 point lead. But it's Minnesota, and I see Barkley support pushing Franken over the top. Democrats carry the seat 51-49. It will not be called immediately. 
9. Georgia - Republican Saxby Chambliss is facing off against Democrat Jim Martin. Although Chambliss is up by about 1 point in the polls, the independent candidate seems to be hurting Martin. Neither candidate will break 50%, the number needed to avoid a runoff. The race will be high-profile and the election held in December. Martin will win, but by an extraordinarily narrow margin. There will also likely be disputes over the state's electronic voting machines.
   
10. Kentucky - Republican Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is facing an unexpectedly tough race from Democrat Bruce Lunsford. McConnell will win unless Obama loses Kentucky by less than 15 points. There does exist a 25% chance for Lunsford. 
    
11. Mississippi - New Republican senator Roger Wicker replaced Trent Lott early this year and immediately was marked by the Democrats as a potential target. The x-factor here is black turnout: if blacks come out in large numbers to vote for Obama, the coattails may well sway the election in favor Democrat Ronnie Musgrove. I am not acquainted enough with the race to give a prediction, but suffice it to say that I don't see the state flipping without Obama doing much better in the state than the current polling suggests. 

The Democrats will win the first 9 seats, giving them 60 in the Senate. Joe Lieberman will then loudly flirt with switch parties, and become an Independent who caucuses with the Republicans.

There is about a 35% chance that either Kentucky or Mississippi flips. This would give the Democrats the coveted filibuster-destroying majority.