by Eyck Freymann
6:49 PM
Sorry they've been so late in coming.
- Indiana will stay close, but I think McCain might well pull it off here
- Missouri will go to McCain by 2.5 points or so (depends on Bradley effect)
- North Carolina is still a tossup; I can see both McCain and Obama eking out narrow wins
- Good news: Obama will comfortably win Pennsylvania and Virginia (without needs for recounts)
- I can't pretend to have any idea about Ohio and Florida. Obama has polling and early voting leads there, but the system is so screwed up after two straight elections under Republican control that I have no idea how many provisional ballots will be trashed.
- Obama will carry NH and IA by double digits, and NM, CO, and NV by sizable margins.
Overall, I see Obama coasting to a solid (but not landslide) victory. Most likely there will be some element of racism, though I do not envision it being more than a point or two. It will effect states Georgia and Missouri but not so much Ohio and Florida. We'll see.
3 comments:
why do you think NC will end up going McCain? Most polls I've seen have it close, but with a decided Obama lead.
Obama had a 250,000 vote lead in NC so it seems to be looking pretty good for him there.
[among early voters]
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