Its Looking Good, But Don't Party Just Yet

by RealistGuy

Call me cocky, but Obama is close to locking this race up. He missed his first chance by not clearly winning the first debate, but his second chance is tonight. If Palin makes a serious mistake on a tough economic question or if Biden is just better, its over. The stakes are so high, a tie is a good night for Palin because it keeps the campaign afloat. You want proof, well here it is.

John McCain's campaign just decided to forget Michigan. This is pure desperation, as the electoral map is looking worse and worse for McCain. By my calculations Obama has just about 10 ways to get to 270 based on polling and state trends. John McCain has three. McCain must win either Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, or New Hampshire, and he must keep Virginia, Ohio, North Carolina, and Florida, and Missouri. McCain is in trouble. Pennsylvania polls have skyrocketed for Obama, who now has a 7.7% lead in the RCP avg. Wisconsin just got put into the leaning Obama column because Obama now has a 5% lead in RCP avg. Minnesota is still considered a tossup, but a Cnn/Time poll had Obama up 11% . Another sign of trouble is that Obama is winning in three of the five Bush states that McCain can't lose. Florida, Ohio, and Virginia are all in Obama's sights. In Florida, the RCP average has Obama up 3%. In Ohio, he is up 2%. In Virginia, Obama is up 2.4%. North Carolina is tied, which is bad news for McCain since it is generally an easy Republican victory. Only Missouri is a key Bush state where McCain is leading at a close 1.7%.

Continued: Click "Read More"

So we understand his electoral troubles, but another problem is his campaign's unimaginative way of dealing with being down. The day after polls began trending Obama, McCain "suspended" his campaign. Is that really the best they could come up with? Every voter saw through it, and it hurt his "country first" image. The second of his campaign's managerial troubles is that they mishandled Sarah Palin. The minute that she made a mistake, they pulled her off the trail, even though her favorable ratings were higher than McCain's. When this happened, voters began thinking about her as the hidden candidate. It hurt her credibility and the campaign's. After two weeks of hiding, the campaign forced her to do an interview with Katie Couric to prove that she isn't hiding from the camera. After the interview, I think a lot of conservatives wish she had hid. These campaign advisors have made her run for the vice-presidency so difficult, I don't blame her for being frazzled. The third and final problem with the campaign is that they act like the underdogs. Every debate, press conference, or interview the McCain campaign sets up is preceded by ten McCain advisors lowering expectations. "O, Palin will do fine, but Biden is a smart guy who should win." What kind of campaign is that? One of the reasons Obama is doing so well is because voters don't feel any confidence in McCain. Why should they? His campaign doesn't even have confidence in him.

The last reason why McCain is in trouble is the bailout. When McCain went to Washington to get this bill passed, he put the success of his campaign on the shoulders of House Republicans. They either didn't realize or didn't care that they could fatally hurt McCain because House Republicans killed the original bailout. McCain got his second chance to turn Obama's momentum shift around. When the new "Pork" filled Senate's bailout plan came out, he should have voted "nay." He could have said that a bailout is needed, but that the Senate's plan is true thievery. It would have been short sweet and memorable. Instead he voted with the bill and left the media still talking about Obama's momentum. McCain's vote also left a sour taste in the mouths of "True Conservatives." Glen Beck, a conservative talk show host, recently said that McCain lost many far-right conservatives and the election with his "yea" vote. McCain can no longer use the socialism attacks that have destroyed liberals and excited the right.

So it's looking good for Obama and The Dems, ------------But!!!!!!! Don't party yet!

If Biden and Obama both lose in their debates, than the election is far from over. And yes, racism is also a major factor in the election. Analysts say Obama needs at least a three point lead in states like Virginia, North Carolina, and Ohio because in rural districts racism plays a major role. However, Biden has a legitimate chance to break the foundation of McCain's campaign tonight, Sarah Palin. So Dems go buy some balloons and cake, but don't pop the bubbly just yet.