Book Review: The Opinion Makers

by Eyck Freymann



I just finished The Opinion Makers by David W. Moore, the former Senior Editor of the Gallup poll. It should be required reading for all citizens who take the polls seriously. To some, I am sure, it was a painful reminder of ridiculous media frenzy opinion surveys evoke. To me, it was a wakeup call.

The book begins with a condemnation of polls, showing with evidence that they provide not a precise picture but a rough estimate which is subject to easy change. It then discusses the poor polling in the run-up to the Iraq War.  Continued: Click "Read More"

The media reported surveys claiming that 70% of the American public supported the war, easily enough for the White House to justify an invasion. In reality, however, 40% of respondents (the vast majority of which favored the invasion) specified, when asked later in the interview, that they did not care one way or the other if their opinions were followed. In other words, roughly 35% favored invasion, 25% opposed, and 40% had no opinion. The pro-war respondents now have not a majority but a narrow plurality. There was no popular mandate.

A cynical but perhaps true cornerstone of the book's argument is that the few percent who answer "don't know" in any particular survey is much, much larger. Subleties in question wording and order can determine whether the answer will be an arbitrary yes or an arbitrary no. Because of this, most issue polls are inconclusive. The media, however, treat them as fact and then impose the results on the public.

Liberal or conservative, everyone who reads this book will have to seriously second-guess their trust of the polls. Although I am sorely tempted to believing the ones out now, the next President is far from decided.