Senate Race Roundup

by Eyck Freymann

For now I'm going to depart a bit from the Presidential campaign (don't worry, I'll get to that) and discuss the races for United States Senate. The Democrats currently hold a fragile 51-49 majority, but they are poised to drastically increase their margins. The Republicans have nearly twice as many seats to defend, many in states where Obama is competitive or leading. The question is whether the Democrats can pick up enough to ensure a filibuster-proof majority (60 seats). Here is my roundup:

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1. Seats in Colorado, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Alaska, and Virginia are likely or solid Democratic pickups.

2. North Carolina, where Democrat Kay Hagan is against Republican Liddy Dole, has moved over the past few weeks from likely Republican to tossup and then to leans Democratic. Polling has shown a substantial shift towards Hagan. Although Dole has a definitive monetary edge, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has tens of millions of dollars to allocate. This is a state where Obama and McCain appear tied. Although we must wait for our next round of fundraising figures, I would put Hagan in the lead.

3. In Minnesota, where Democrat Al Franken is seeking to unseat Republican Norm Coleman, the race has tightened. Coleman's support for Bush has hurt him in this blue state, although Franken faced numerous problems of his own. A former radio talk show host and SNL comedian, Franken has made a number of questionable commetns over the years. He has also faced questions over payment of certain taxes. Nevertheless, Coleman's seven point lead has fallen to three points and Franken is within striking distance. Race Rating: Narrowly leans Republican.

4. Oregon is a state where the Democrats should be doing better than they are. I spoke extensively with an Oregon delegate at the Democratic Convention who assured me that the race would get closer. Republican Gordon Smith is trying desperately to separate himself from the Bush adminstration, a much-loathed name in the Pacific northwest. Democrat Jeff Merkeley, President of the State Senate, has not been aggressive enough in tying Smith to Bush. Recent polling has shown Merkely taking a modest 2.5 point lead, but he must be a stronger candidate and presence in the state if he wants to win comfortably. The Republicans won't let Smith go gentle into that good night. Race Rating: Leans Democratic

5. Kentucky: Republican Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is surprisingly unpopular in the Bluegrass state and is facing a decent challenger in Democrat Bruce Lunsford. I met Lunsford at the convention (albeit briefly) and I still have hope that he can prevail. Polling is inconclusive; I need more information before I designate this as competitive. For now, it's Likely Republican but one that Could Quickly and Easily Flip.

6. Andrew Rice and Rick Noriega are seeking to unseat Republicans in Oklahoma and Texas, respectively. Although they are undeniably behind, their Republican counterparts have 50% disapproval ratings and are not sure-fire wins. If there are any big surprises on Election Night, it will be here. (I am biased; both Rice and Noriega were extremely congenial and attentive when I met them.)

My conclusion: Because Joe Lieberman will likely become a Republican, the Democrats have an uphill battle in their quest for 60 Senate seats. But let me say this:

I would be disappointed at 55

I would be grimly satisfied with 56

I would be fine with 57

I would be expectant with 58

I would be delighted with 59

I'm not even going to think about 60.