(Crossposted on Rishubhav's Voice From the Middle)
Unless you’ve been hiding behind the giant NBC logo shaped rock that is the Olympics for the past few days you’ve probably noticed that we have a splendid little war (or to be more precise a “peacekeeping conflict”) on our hands in Georgia. In case you have been hiding under that rock, on the seventh of August Georgian forces invaded the seperatist region of South Ossetia, breaking an hours-old ceasefire. The next day Russia invaded Georgia to support its quasi-client quasi-state, and chaos ensued.
Then on the 10th of August the Georgians, having realized that they tried to bite off more than they could chew declared a ceasefire and ordered their troops to leave South Ossetia. However, Russia was in no mood for a ceasefire and continued to merrily tear its way through Georgian territory, today moving into Georgia from Abzhakia the other breakaway province under Russian protection. Georgia meanwhile is spiraling into chaos, having declared a state of emergency and recalled its 2000 man deployment in Iraq, the third largest in the country after the US and Britain.
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To me with my love for historical allusions this entire situation seems like Korea redux, except this time with the places switched. Just like in Korea Georgia launched a surprise offensive in the hopes of reuniting a split nation. Just like in Korea after a few early successes the aggressor found itself pitted against an intervening superpower that decisively turned the tide of the war, and now just like in Korea the attacker finds itself on the ropes and in retreat.
So it falls on the United States to play its part in this little historical reenactment - that of China. Just as Mao warned United Nations forces not to cross the 38th Parallel, so we should warn the Russians to stop their incursions into Georgia, while allowing them to maintain control over Abzhakia and South Ossetia, and be ready to back up our warnings with force if need be.
Now I’ll be the first to point out that the Georgian government is not perfect; far from it in fact. As I said before, the Georgians were the aggressors in this situation, and should take the blame for that. Furthermore, having supported the principles of self-determination by recognizing Kosovo, the United States cannot now violate those principles by forcibly reuniting Georgia. However, Georgia is also an outpost of democracy in an increasingly authoritarian part of the world. True it is not exactly a “model democracy”, but first-time democracies rarely are, and even a halfway democracy is better than Putin’s (and it is still very much Putin’s) one-party state.
Then of course there is the threat that by intervening in Georgia we may very well cause World War 3, as the Russians will imediately turn their nuclear arsenal on us, blindly destroying the world. Luckily, all parties involved are much smarter than that. Putin and his cohorts, who mastered the art of self-preservation and enrichment in the post-Soviet years would not rush blindly into conflict with a far-superior US and NATO. We can help moderate things by starting small. We should declare an American/NATO guarantee of Georgian (but not Abzhakian or South Ossetian) airspace, and back it up by sending planes into that airspace, and shooting down Russian planes if need be. From there we can escalate to providing air support for Georgian attacks on Russian forces (once again, only within true Georgia), until the Russians finally realize that we are willing to defend Georgia.
We can do that, or we can sit back and watch as the rest of the world sees the West abandon yet another fledgling democracy to the forces of authoritarianism, as its leaders kowtow (in the historical sense of the world) to another one-party state. Hopefully the President, and his NATO “allies” will show that they have some semblance of a spine left, and do the right thing.
-Rishubhav
Saturday, August 16, 2008
What's the Matter With Georgia?
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5 comments:
I agree with you in principle, i.e. that the US and Europe should be supporting Georgia, but I would have a lot more doubt about the extent to which the Russians will be willing to respect a "far-superior US and NATO", particularly with the American army already overextended and support for the US from Europe, including NATO members, very low at the moment.
It's also worth bringing up a point perhaps more important, namely, that this conflict began long before Georgia's attack on 7 August. The issue that is really at hand, the one that riled up the Russian government in the first place, is the idiotic missile shield project, which, incidentally, Poland has now agreed to allow. The Russians have been getting more and more agitated about the project, culminating in the recent conflict, which reads to me very much like a warning, and the recent Polish decision seems likely only to antagonize them further.
There are two historical parallels that I would draw here, both somewhat more dire than yours:
1. Sudetenland. While I agree with you on the stupidity of any argument of "territorial integrity", the fact remains that if/when South Ossetia and Abkhazia officially leave Georgia, they will most likely be absorbed by Russia almost immediately, leaving one to wonder if the Ossetians and Abkhazians have really had their needs met or if they have just been pawned by the Russian Federation.
2. Poland, 1939, but without a strong group of allies declaring war in response. The US is stretched far too thin for a military response to be taken seriously. I think it unlikely that NATO and the EU will look favorably on engaging the international equivalent of the axe-wielding mass murderer who lives upstairs in actual fighting. Unless something changes very soon, I fear that we will see a Georgia completely absorbed by Russia, whether officially or as another client state.
I agree with Sectori.
This is what I would call a "perfect conflict" for Russia, who would get to expand its borders, reassert its power, and gain diplomatic and economic leverage just from South Ossetia and Abkhazia alone. All while a militarily exhausted U.S. and a diplomatically impaired NATO, ( which doesn't want to completely offend Russia, and moreover lost its diplomatic leverage somewhere in Mesopotamia with the U.S.) watches paralyzed from the sidelines.
Georgia was not necessarily the aggressor, they fell into a Russian trap. This lack of foresight illustrates the flaws of the fledgling post-Soviet Georgian government, which could not even predict the ramifications of a military strike within their own borders.
The U.S. should simply state their support for Georgia and push NATO to diplomatically pressure Russia to abide by the newly signed truce, lest we look even more like hypocrites. The problem with allowing Russia to usurp South Ossetia and Abkhazia is the oil and natural gas pipeline that travels through the regions. This pipeline is crucial to Georgia's economic stability. Hence, without South Ossetia and Abkhazia, Georgia could potentially fall into economic ruin. If this prognostication proves to be correct, the Russians would invade Georgia again, this time representing economic salvation, and take control of the small nation.
Of note: the Russian press has insisted that Georgia is committing genocide and ritual killings, and the American press hasn't so much as batted an eye.
From what I gather, the Ossetians don't /personally/ want to be Russians, but they see no other choice.
Having the United States get militarily involved is an extremely bad idea, in my humble opinion. The world seems pretty much convinced that the only reason the United States is supporting Georgia is that they sent troops to Iraq. If we help them, we a) don't have enough troops in the first place, b) look desperate for help in Iraq [which we are], and c) incite the wrath of Russia, a country that has, as we do, NATO veto power.
I really think that this is a project that the UN should tackle, but that doesn't seem to be happening either.
Sectori pretty much has it, as well.
I'm reading Petrostate, an excellent book by Marshall Goldman about Russia's coming energy monopoly. Chapter 1 of the book describes how Gazprom, the Russian national gas company, has been using the nation's control over Eurasia's natural gas supplies to gain economic leverage.
Russia already has a virtual monopoly on Europe's natural gas, providing up to 100% of the gas used in northern Europe. Over the years they have manipulated supply to punish eastern European states that they didn't like. The nation's complete control over the world's gas supplies is increasing by the day.
Now back to Georgia. Why did Russia invade? As I see it, there are two reasons:
1. Russia wants to derail the eastward expanse of NATO, as they (correctly) see the Missile Shield program as a swaggering display of power by the US. By destabilizing Georgia, they effectively postpone any more eastward expanse of the organization for at least a year.
2. The Caspian Sea has vast untapped reserves of both oil and natural gas. As it stands, Russia does not control this completely. Petrostate describes Russia's previous efforts to stymie other nation's attempts to build and maintain pipelines from non-Russian-controlled gas sources. Russia realized that the current sky-high oil prices would necessitate urgent and massive exploration in the Caspian. While the Western world was glued to the TV, the Russian Federation set itself up to seize control of the coming Caspian bonanza.
Military involvement seems a stretch at ths time. We're better off keeping an eye on things to avoid a Hitler-esque domination of ex-Soviet republics. Next on the chopping block: Ukraine. Obviously (or possibly not), Russia will not invade every former Soviet republic. But they will try to create economic problems for them.
So what should America do? For the time being, not much. Military involvement is certainly not an option. It's best to avoid a situation where we step into conflicts and get too involved. As with Vietnam and Iraq, we got too involved, committed too many forces, and the wars turned unpopular. Doing so here will have the same effect with the added dimension of nuclear combat. Best to stay out of it. The best option is to isolate Russia as much as possible. Give 'em hell at the UN, maybe evict them from the G8, and Russia will start to lag behind. And if Russia wants to give us payback via tank shells and bomb payloads, they'll destroy their image in the rest of the world.
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