Election Prognostication: Part 2

This is the second part of a two part prediction series. The first covered the Republicans.

Although, as stated in the Article About Me, I narrowly prefer Hillary Clinton over Barack Obama. I believed during my interview (and still believe today) that she would make a stronger president. She has decades of experience fighting for causes that I believe in, and I think she brings enough experience, gravitas, and connections to begin taking this country back on Day One. There is a reason why the Republican establishment so despises her: because for years on end she has endured their slander (Vince Foster), misrepresentation (Whitewater), and personal
insults (calling Chelsea "ugly" on TV). She has stood up to their attacks and has emerged battle-scarred but nevertheless still standing, and I think they know that she will bring about a complete reverse-course the minute she takes power.

Now, however, we are faced with a difficult choice.For all intents and purposes, the Republicans have a candidate, John McCain, around which to rally. Meanwhile, the Democrats are facing a drawn-out fight-to-the-bitter-end struggle over superdelegates, those mysterious party officials whose convention votes will now decide the nominee. Protracted infighting will disillusion the voters, draw negative publicity to both candidates, and distract the country from the actual general election.

This could mean four years of John McCain.

The stakes are too high. At this point, Democrats must come to a decisive choice and save the nation another four months of brutal primary.

It has been acknowledged by every pundit, both inside and out of the Clinton campaign, that Ohio and Texas are must-win states for her if she is to win the delegate battle. On March 4, Texas and Ohio voters will go to the polls to cast their ballots. They will face a difficult choice: vote for Clinton and keep the primary going, or deliver the nomination to Obama. At this point, it seems best for the country and for our chances of uniting to win in November that we should pick Obama.

I do not say this grudgingly. Barack Obama is a politician unlike any our country has seen since JFK. His intelligence, charisma and message are unrivaled by any other candidate, and I will campaign for him if he is the nominee.

In a perfect world, I would pick Hillary Clinton to be our next president. But the world is far from perfect, and we must accept the fact that Barack Obama's momentum is at this point unstoppable, and that he will be the Democratic nominee for President.
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Now the question arises: Who should Obama pick to be his vice-presidential candidate?

Let us examine some absolute necessities: the candidate must be a man. All those who dream of a Barack-Hillary ticket are deluding themselves. The nation is ready for a black president and the nation is ready for a woman president. I am not yet convinced, however, that it will elect both at the same time.

The candidate must be from a state or region which would benefit the party electorally. The Midwest and Southwest are two such areas.

The candidate must have EXTENSIVE foreign policy experience. McCain has served in the military and in the Senate for most of his life. Obama, who has no such experience to speak of, will need a solid military or foreign policy guru on his ticket.

Having examined these, two obvious choices present themselves, with one far more unlikely possibility:

1. Governor Bill Richardson (D-NM) - Richardson's presidential campaign was ill-fated, but he has a lot going for him. Richardson has served as the Secretary of Energy and Ambassador to the UN, acting as hostage negotiator in dozens of foreign countries. He has been nominated four times for the Nobel Peace Prize (although he has never won) and is Hispanic. He has also spent years in Congress and was reelected in 2006 by the biggest landslide of any New Mexico governor ever. He would strongly deliver the key Latino constituency in New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, and Florida, turning red states blue in McCain's own backyard.

2. Former NATO General Wesley Clark (D-AR) - If imminent war with Iran appears to be the issue of the day, Clark may be the way to go. He was the Supreme Allied Commander for many years, and has been highly decorated, including winning the Presidential Medal of Freedom. His Arkansas roots may help carry neighboring Missouri and Iowa, although his electoral advantage may be less than Richardson's. The catch: he's endorsed Hillary.

3. (Second Tier) Senator Evan Bayh (D-IN) - Bayh, a moderate, has served two terms as governor and two as senator of this utra-conservative midwestern state. He is incredibly popular there. Bayh has no real foreign policy experience, but his state's proximity to the swing states of Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin may swing them to Obama. A solid choice, but not a spectacular one.

Prediction: Obama chooses Richardson. He balances out the ticket with experience, delivers the Latino vote (keeping Florida in play even if McCain picks Crist) and would likely deliver the combined 19 electoral votes of Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico that narrowly went for Bush in 2004.