I have had a number of requests to make my predictions, and so I shall.
At this point, John McCain has it wrapped up. It is nearly mathematically impossible for Huckabee to win, and McCain's recent slew of endorsements has him looking and acting like a nominee. There are now two questions remaining in this contest, and I don't pretend to know the answers:
Firstly: Why is Mike Huckabee staying in the race? He has said that he may be destroying his political career. Why fight for a lost cause? The answer is that he is aiming for what he has been aiming for all along: the VP slot. He recognized over a year ago that McCain or Romney would be behooved by picking a southerner who could connect with Evangelicals for the vice-presidential nomination. He has been positioning himself to be that person. Huckabee clearly believes that if he garners media attention all the way up to the convention, he will be the logical choice. We'll see.
Secondly: Who will McCain pick to run for Vice-President? Here the Arizona senator is faced with a difficult choice: solidify his conservative base by picking a religious southerner like Huckabee and risk alienating his Independent support, or pick a moderate to grab control of the center while ceding crucial conservative support.
A McCain-Huckabee ticket would easily take the South. It would also be competitive in the religious Midwest, in states such as Iowa, Missouri, West Virginia, and (to a much lesser extent) Ohio and Wisconsin. If would also do moderately well in the Southwest. However, it would cost McCain crucial moderate support in Pennsylvania, Oregon, Michigan, and Colorado which could swing the election to the Democrats. If McCain were to pick Huckabee, he would do so not for regional strength, but for party unity: to get leading conservative figures such as James Dobson, Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity, and Ann Coulter back on his side.
Alternatively, McCain could pick Governor Charlie Crist of Florida. Crist, elected in 2006 to replace outgoing governor Jeb Bush (boo!) is very popular in the state and relatively moderate. He would most likely deliver Florida solidly to the Republican column. One thing that could hurt him, however, is that during his campaign for governor, a personal friend said that he would "swear on a stack of bibles" that Crist was gay. Let me state that I could not care less whether Charlie Crist is gay. However, the blogs picked it up, and you will hear of it every day if McCain picks Crist. Don't underestimate how much this could damage McCain's standing with the Religious Right.
One of McCain's biggest weaknesses is his acknowledged cluelessness about matters economic. With the nation heading towards a recession, it is imperative that the next president bring monetary experience to the table. McCain could make up for his lack of it by picking Senator Tom Coburn, an ultraconservative from Oklahoma. Coburn's advantage would be a strong economic message and conservative credentials. Unfortunately for the Republicans, he offers no true regional advantage.
Prediction: McCain-Coburn would be the strongest ticket, by I have a feeling that it will be Crist. Once Florida is removed from the equation, it becomes much more difficult for the Democrats to win.
So McCain-Crist it is. Now let's wait and see.
At this point, John McCain has it wrapped up. It is nearly mathematically impossible for Huckabee to win, and McCain's recent slew of endorsements has him looking and acting like a nominee. There are now two questions remaining in this contest, and I don't pretend to know the answers:
Firstly: Why is Mike Huckabee staying in the race? He has said that he may be destroying his political career. Why fight for a lost cause? The answer is that he is aiming for what he has been aiming for all along: the VP slot. He recognized over a year ago that McCain or Romney would be behooved by picking a southerner who could connect with Evangelicals for the vice-presidential nomination. He has been positioning himself to be that person. Huckabee clearly believes that if he garners media attention all the way up to the convention, he will be the logical choice. We'll see.
Secondly: Who will McCain pick to run for Vice-President? Here the Arizona senator is faced with a difficult choice: solidify his conservative base by picking a religious southerner like Huckabee and risk alienating his Independent support, or pick a moderate to grab control of the center while ceding crucial conservative support.
A McCain-Huckabee ticket would easily take the South. It would also be competitive in the religious Midwest, in states such as Iowa, Missouri, West Virginia, and (to a much lesser extent) Ohio and Wisconsin. If would also do moderately well in the Southwest. However, it would cost McCain crucial moderate support in Pennsylvania, Oregon, Michigan, and Colorado which could swing the election to the Democrats. If McCain were to pick Huckabee, he would do so not for regional strength, but for party unity: to get leading conservative figures such as James Dobson, Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity, and Ann Coulter back on his side.
Alternatively, McCain could pick Governor Charlie Crist of Florida. Crist, elected in 2006 to replace outgoing governor Jeb Bush (boo!) is very popular in the state and relatively moderate. He would most likely deliver Florida solidly to the Republican column. One thing that could hurt him, however, is that during his campaign for governor, a personal friend said that he would "swear on a stack of bibles" that Crist was gay. Let me state that I could not care less whether Charlie Crist is gay. However, the blogs picked it up, and you will hear of it every day if McCain picks Crist. Don't underestimate how much this could damage McCain's standing with the Religious Right.
One of McCain's biggest weaknesses is his acknowledged cluelessness about matters economic. With the nation heading towards a recession, it is imperative that the next president bring monetary experience to the table. McCain could make up for his lack of it by picking Senator Tom Coburn, an ultraconservative from Oklahoma. Coburn's advantage would be a strong economic message and conservative credentials. Unfortunately for the Republicans, he offers no true regional advantage.
Prediction: McCain-Coburn would be the strongest ticket, by I have a feeling that it will be Crist. Once Florida is removed from the equation, it becomes much more difficult for the Democrats to win.
So McCain-Crist it is. Now let's wait and see.
1 comment:
i don't beleive any ignorace of ecenomic matters would hurt Mccain to much. It may actually help him amongst conservatives, as we tend to support a laizzes faire government policy on ecenomic affairs. I would argue that doing nothing at all in regards to further intervention would be the best way to recover after, what seems an inevitable recession
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