I know it's a bit late for an Iowa roundup: New Hampshire is tomorrow. I just wanted to briefly put my opinions of what happened:
- Thompson survived to later primaries by finishing third. Impressive considering he bores to sleep everyone who hears his voice.
- McCain has been called "a big winner" of Iowa. How so? He finished fourth in a field of five serious candidates. (Ron Paul is not viable. I know I am condemning myself to hate comments here, but the Republican party will never nominate someone who wants to get rid of the Fed and bring all the troops home, though they don't care much about Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, all of which Paul would eliminate)
- Romney was the big loser. He's spent months and tens of millions carpet-bombing the small state with ads, and he gets beaten by Huckabee, someone who two months ago wasn't even on the radar. If he loses New Hampshire to McCain, which I suspect he will, he will win Michigan and not much else.
- Huckabee got some momentum, but he's not serious in New Hampshire. He should pass on that state and take advantage of the other candidates' absences to campaign nonstop in South Carolina. Without a huge win there, he has too little money to stick it through to February 5.
- John Edwards had a strong second place finish, and he isn't dropping out, but without a win in Iowa his chances at the nomination now look like next to nothing.
- Hillary Clinton had a real blow. Countless democrats across the country (Including Yours Truly) were effectively undecided as to the candidate of choice, and looked to Iowa caucusgoers to give us guidance. When they doubled their numbers from 2004 and still chose Obama, Hillary suffered a big blow. She'll have an uphill battle in NH now, and could easily lose the nomination.
- As I said, Iowa told a large number of voters who to support. Unless Hillary turns it around (which I know she can) Obama will be the candidate.
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